Shen, Jianfa
(1994)
Analysis and projection of multiregional population dynamics in China: 1950-2087.
PhD thesis, London School of Economics and Political Science.
Abstract
This research focuses on an analysis of multiregional population dynamics of China at two spatial levels. The first part of the thesis is about urban-rural population dynamics in China. The forces determining urbanization process are discussed. The concepts of multiregional population accounts and forward demographic rates are used to analyze the urban-rural population change. Urban-rural life tables and an urban-rural population projection model are developed. A demo-economic model is used to drive the urban- rural population migration and transition in the population projection model. Three urban-rural population projections are made for the period 1987-2087 assuming various fertility trends in urban and rural populations. A growth stage (before the late 2030s) and a stable stage (after the late 2030s) of population development in China are identified on the basis of these projection results. The second part of the thesis is about multiregional (provincial level) population dynamics in China. The main features of the spatial distribution of China's population and regional trends in population change since the 1950s are examined. Fertility, mortality and migration analyses are carried out to reveal the major factors affecting regional disparities. Finally, a more precise and straightforward multiregional population projection model based on forward demographic rates is developed by introducing extended multiregional population accounts. The model is calibrated using 1982 census data and 1987 one-percent population sampling data to produce a multiregional population projection of China. Future provincial population trends are revealed. The implications of the future long-term population trends both at the urban-rural and provincial levels are discussed in the concluding chapter of the thesis. Population growth will continue to be a major problem facing China in the next 40 years. Economic reform and development may have both negative and positive effects on population development. Smooth transition to a market economy, continued steady growth of China's economy and a slowdown of population growth will augur well for the future in China.
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