Evron, Yair
(1971)
Nuclear options in a regional sub-system: the case of Israel, with some general comparative references.
PhD thesis, London School of Economics and Political Science.
Abstract
The proliferation of nuclear technology in the Middle
East, primarily in Israel, has created a series of problems
and issues for research which are dealt with in this study.
A general theoretical framework within which these problems
could be discussed, is suggested. First, the concept of
regional sub systems of the global international system, is
applied to problems of nuclear proliferation in general.
Then, the effects of the proliferation of nuclear technology
on the one hand, and the proliferation of nuclear weapons on
the other, on the various levels of the international system, are analysed. Second, the problem of the uses of nuclear options for diplomatic and strategic bargaining, is considered here, as distinct from that of weapons themselves. A model of these uses is formulated, and two case studies, one on Israel and one, in comparative terms, on India, are investigated. The development of the nuclear option in Israel is studied within the general framework of the Israeli strategic doctrines. This development triggered a public debate in Israel on nuclear policy. This debate and the international reactions, forced the Israeli government to formulate a policy regarding problems of arms control. Both the public debate and the Israeli position on arms control are studied. The development of the Israeli nuclear option put the Arab statss and especially the Egyptian government into grave dilemmas. The reactions of the various Arab regimes to the Israeli option varied. The Egyptians had to develop a series of responses, which on their part were directed mainly at creating a deterrent against Israel 'going nuclear'. The major problem of whether the development of the Israeli option has affected the structure of the conflict between the two sides is analysed. While the development of nuclear options does not appear yet to have had any profoundly de-stabilising effect on the Middle East sub-system (and the same could be said about the Indian-Pakistani relationship), it is argued that a possible future proliferation of nuclear weapons into the Arab-Israeli region, will have destabilising effects on this region and on the Middle East sub-system in general. And it is further argued that if this proliferation is asymmetrical it might have some destabilising effects on the bipolar system as well. Thus the whole issue of nuclear proliferation in the
Middle East, is put within the general framework of different levels of the international system, and the interaction between developments in a sub-system on the one hand, and the bipolar system on the other, is discussed.
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