Mackmurdo, Chris
(2007)
Intelligence power and prevention after 9/11: The role of intelligence in facilitating and legitimising controlling security strategies of the UK, US and UN.
PhD thesis, London School of Economics and Political Science.
Abstract
The theoretical framework for this thesis is provided by a revised version of James Gow's Constructivist Realism, based on Phenomenalist ontology, epistemology and causation, that explains the role of social processes in a material world that is socially constructed, but available to Positivist verification. After 9/11, the strategic imperative to prevent the threat posed by apparently incoercible and unconstrained terrorist actors has led to a shift from coercive strategies, which seek to prevent attacks through reactive mechanisms, to controlling security strategies that seek to prevent attacks through pro-active mechanisms. Although rational, controlling security strategies contravene the socially-agreed Caroline formula that underpins international order. This situation has led to a rational action/legitimate action astigmatism in international society. Controlling security strategies have vital intelligence requirements: an actor is incapable of preventing threats unless it is capable of anticipating threats. The post-9/11 strategic reality has triggered the need to revise Herman's concept of 'intelligence power', considering the roles of intelligence in facilitating and legitimising preventive responses to threats to international peace and security. These threats to international peace and security are posed by the two separate threats presented by 'new' terrorism and WMD proliferation, as well as a post-9/11 terrorism-WMD threat nexus. However, unlike states such as the UK and US, the UN is incapable of fulfilling the intelligence requirements of its controlling security strategy, owing to a lack of an intelligence capability. The differentials in the levels of intelligence power between the UN and states such as the UK and US entail significant implications for international order and intelligence affairs. If international order is to be maintained in the post-9/11 strategic reality, then the rational action/legitimate action astigmatism needs to be corrected. To potentially achieve this, the UNSC needs to develop an intelligence-assessment capability that will help enable it to facilitate and legitimise pro-action against anticipated threats in line with its and other states' strategic goals. Collective intelligence machinery will need new organisational structures at the international level that will encourage the provision of credible intelligence that has a better chance of meeting the standards of evidence that are required by the UNSC in determining threats prior to their materialisation.
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