Essays on housing economics: the impacts of land use and voucher policies on affordable housing

Aravena-Gonzalez, Ignacio (2024) Essays on housing economics: the impacts of land use and voucher policies on affordable housing. PhD thesis, London School of Economics and Political Science.

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Abstract

Housing affordability is a global policy challenge, particularly severe in large cities with long-term supply constraints and rising demand. This issue affects mainly the lowest income quintiles and arguably is increasing to middle-income families, who face higher rent burdens and limited affordable options. Policymakers have attempted to address this through different policies, such as land use reforms and housing demand vouchers, but their impacts remain unclear. I use quasi-experimental shocks to estimate the causal effects of zoning policies in Los Angeles and New York, and a demand voucher in Chile. In Los Angeles, incentivizing land use benefits targeting affordable units (inclusionary zoning) produces positive local results on the development probability and the number of units. However, these results are primarily in low-income and densely populated central neighbourhoods. Conversely, single-family districts show no significant effects on social housing outcomes, which acts as a disamenity that negatively impacts sales and face neighbors resistance. In New York, I study the effects of a major land use reform applied to roughly 20% of the city. I leverage spatial heterogeneity to test if relaxing zoning constraints lowers housing prices. Results indicate contrasting effects: peripheral districts experience neighbourhood revitalizations that increase housing prices, driven by amenities that outweigh supply effects, whereas consolidated central districts show the opposite pattern. Lastly, the voucher policy in Chile reveals that affordable housing developments in peripheral areas can promote social integration through attracting more educated families. These projects build better houses, increase green spaces, and build gathed communities that face less crimes. As predicted by theory, this leads to a modest increase in local housing prices in metropolitan areas with greater supply constraints. In all cases the results are heterogenous: between central and peripheral areas (New York), socioeconomic status of neighborhoods (Los Angeles), and Metropolitan and smaller cities (Chile). This highlights the importance of causal evaluation, geography and that there are no silver bullets in housing policy.

Item Type:	Thesis (PhD)
Additional Information:	© 2024 Ignacio Aravena-Gonzalez
Library of Congress subject classification:	H Social Sciences > HD Industries. Land use. Labor
Sets:	Departments > Geography and Environment
Supervisor:	Hilber, Christian A. L. and Holman, Nancy
URI:	http://etheses.lse.ac.uk/id/eprint/4799

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