Basbug, Berna Burcak
(2007)
Modelling of the Turkish Catastrophe Insurance Pool data, 2000-2003.
PhD thesis, London School of Economics and Political Science.
Abstract
The devastating 1999 Marmara and Duzce earthquakes lead to a significant increase in the earthquake studies in Turkey in geological, engineering and financial aspects. The start of the Turkish Catastrophe Insurance Pool (TCIP) in September 2000 brought the mandatory earthquake insurance scheme in Turkey. Since then, many claims have been made after the earthquakes. In this study, the earthquake insurance claims data of the TCIP is used to model the number of claims, Ni, and the total claim size (amount). Si, as response variables with time and other covari- ates considering earthquake risk zone 1 and zone 2 in Turkey. The special functions, which are the exponential and the power kernel functions, are used for the modelling purposes to represent the sudden jumps in the number of claims after a disaster. The methods to estimate the related model parameters are presented and the results are used in the modelling process. The total claim amount (or the aggregate claims) process, S(t), is a main tool to calculate the risk process and the expectation of the total claim amount, E(S(t)) =??(t), gives an idea to calculate the necessary aount of the TCIP reserves. Therefore, the estimates of the suggested Ni and Si models are used to predict the necessary reserves of the Turkish Catastrophe Insurance Pool for selected zones. Afterwards, some examples of existing disaster management programs in different countries are given and the features of the Turkish Catastrophe Insurance Pool are discussed. Then, a hypothetical financial vulnerability analysis for Turkey in 10-,50-, 100- and 500- years is presented with suggested solutions in case of a financial gap.
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