Limitations to seasonal weather prediction and crop forecasting due to nonlinearity and model inadequacy

Higgins, Sarah (2015) Limitations to seasonal weather prediction and crop forecasting due to nonlinearity and model inadequacy. PhD thesis, London School of Economics and Political Science.

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Abstract

This Thesis examines the main issues surrounding crop modelling by detailed studies of (i) multi-model ensemble forecasting using a simple dynamical system as a proxy for seasonal weather forecasting, (ii) probabilistic forecasts for crop models and (iii) an analysis of changes in US yield. The ability to forecast crop yield accurately on a seasonal time frame would be hugely beneficial to society in particular farmers, governments and the insurance industry. In addition, advance warning of severe weather patterns that could devastate large areas of crops would allow contingency plans to be put in place before the onset of a widespread famine, potentially averting a humanitarian disaster. There is little experience in the experimental design of ensembles for seasonal weather forecasting. Exploring the stability of the results varying, for example, the sample size aids understanding. For this a series of numerical experiments are conducted in an idealised world based around the Moran Ricker Map. The idealised world is designed to replicate the multi-model ensemble forecasting methods used in seasonal weather forecasting. Given the complexity of the physical weather systems experiments are instead conducted on the Moran Ricker Map [56,70]. Additionally, experiments examine whether including climatology as a separate model or blending with climatology can increase the skill. A method to create probabilistic forecasts from a crop model, the Crop Environment Resource Synthesis Maize model (CERES-Maize) [19, 37] is proposed. New empirical models are created using historical US maize yield. The skill from equally weighting the crop model with a simple empirical model is investigated. Background reviews of weather and yield data is presented in new ways for the largest maize growing state Iowa. A new method separating the impacts of favourable weather from technology increases in a crop yield time series is explored.

Item Type:	Thesis (PhD)
Additional Information:	© 2015 S M W Higgins
Library of Congress subject classification:	H Social Sciences > HA Statistics
Sets:	Departments > Statistics
Supervisor:	Smith, Leonard A.
URI:	http://etheses.lse.ac.uk/id/eprint/3191

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